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      【12月2日】 【CEMA研討會2019秋季第十二講】 Understanding the housing market: the investment aspect

      發布日期:2019-11-28  點擊數:

      論文題目:Understanding the housing market: the investment aspect

      報告人:張福棟(清華大學五道口金融學院助理教授)

      論文摘要:The macro-housing literature generally finds the U.S. housing cycles, particularly the housing boom and bust around the Great Recession, are too volatile to be reconcilable by changes in fundamental as well as financial factors with rational expectation models. The few papers that do provide mechanisms that could generate large price movements bear little data support from both the cross-section of households and aggregate timing of events. This paper proposes a new mechanism that highlights the role played by household portfolio decision to allocate their wealth to second homes for investment purposes in generating housing demand, and therefore housing price, fluctuations. The result of this paper shows that this component of housing demand can amplify housing price response to changes in financial factors such as interest rates, loan to value ratio, as well as mortgage premium. The model is able to quantitatively explain the swings in housing price in the 2000s, and at the same time match salient features in both household and aggregate data.

      時間:12月2日(周一)中午12:10-13:30

      地點:學院南路校區學術會堂712

      報告人簡介:張福棟,清華大學五道口金融學院助理教授。2006年進入中央財經大學中國經濟與管理研究院數理經濟與數理金融實驗班,2010年獲經濟學學士學位,2016年獲美國密西根大學經濟學博士。研究領域為宏觀經濟學和國際經濟學。

      主辦:中國經濟與管理研究院

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